This week Iâve been reminded of a phrase that follows all agencies around. I asked a charity to upload all of the donors theyâd recruited since the drop date of their last Direct Mail campaign. I wanted to show them how many people had received a DM pack a few days before Paid Search took the credit for a donation and what impact the DM campaign had on their web traffic.
âOoh no,â they said. âWe donât like agencies marking their own homework. Our analysts will report on performance.â
The implicit mistrust in that statement is not entirely unjustified. Some agencies may want to prove theyâve done a great job more than they want to learn from their actions. Plus, an agency never reports fewer sales than in-house analysts see. Ever. Itâs easy for a client to assume weâre all on the take.
âIf I added up all the sales that all my agencies gave themselves credit for, Iâd have twice as many sales and could retire,â as one CEO put it to me a few weeks ago.
And they have a point. Everybody knows that last touch attribution (where a sale is credited to the last thing a buyer did before buying) overstates the impact that some channels such as paid search are having on results and CPA. So we turn to fractional attribution. This tool is used to reallocate some of those sales from one channel to another, giving a clearer picture of how each channel is performing. But thereâs just one problem, clients rarely do it.
Why not? Because itâs hard. Itâs hard to get all your assumptions right. And itâs hard to reach agreement amongst a team of siloed marketing managers on who should lose their sales and who they should be given to. Itâs like redistributing Christmas Presents amongst siblings.
As a result, Agencies do it themselves. But they claim ownership of extra sales for their activity without subtracting those sales from another agency’s channel. Itâs not their fault, they are only looking after their bits. And thatâs how we end up at our CEOâs statement above.
So clients should do their own fractional attribution but how do you get them to do it? The answer is: donât.
Fractional attribution is not the final word in understanding the true value of your media investment either. Not by a long chalk. Itâs based on subjective assumptions and has absolutely nothing to say about half the channels in the media mix. So we have a bigger problem. And if we find a way to fix that one, we donât need to worry about making clients do fractional attribution themselves.
And the good news is, thereâs already an answer to this bigger problem. The answer lies in putting all your data feeds into one place, supplementing those feeds with tags from your website and piling in lots of clever algorithms. Those algorithms will sort through your data and figure out what the most common customer journeys look like. They will, for example, show you how many people do a Google search after seeing an email or an SMS (instead of just clicking straight through). Fantastic.
They will also tell you which method of contact is the most likely to convert to a sale in any given circumstance. âBest next actionâ as itâs known can dramatically increase conversion rates and reduce the time an individual spends in the funnel. Great.
You can even set up triggers so best next actions happen automatically 24 hours a day.
Throw in Media Mix Modelling, and your new platform will now tell you what happens across all your channels if you increase or decrease spend in any one channel. You will have yourself a live âReturn on Marketing Investmentâ (ROMI) figure for every channel and can optimise the mix to your heartâs content.
Bloody marvellous. Where do I get it?
Erm, well⊠Your agency.
I know, I know, I can hear you saying it already â werenât we supposed to be avoiding letting agencies mark their own homework?
Well kinda, yes. But hereâs the thing, you only have to use one of them to do it. The one you pick shouldnât have a shiny black box. They should be able to open up their system and show you the data underneath. If you fancy having a crack at customising some of the algorithms, with the best of luck to you, you should be able to do that too.
And if you can find an agency that partners with an independent to deliver this work then youâll have an entirely, well.. independent scoring system. Not only that but youâll have found an agency that believes the right answer is always better than the answer that makes them look best.
Whatâs more â you already know where to find me.
Graham Tomblin
Twenty-odd years helping clients and growing businesses with Data and Direct Marketing.